We Are In The Greatest Job Market Modern Society Has Ever Seen

Initial glance at the charts does indeed suggests that to be the case. And while we can talk about the validity of these numbers, that is not the purpose of this post.

I would like to point your attention to the lows we are hitting today and that these lows previously coincided with upcoming recessions.

Perhaps instead of cheering full employment, the bulls should………….. Continue reading

This Shocking Chart Scares The Bejesus Out Of Bulls

Bulls oftentimes try to discredit current Shiller’s Adjusted S&P P/E ratio of 29.20. A ratio that is now on par with 1929 top. They do so by suggesting Gaap/Nongaap, forward, operating, this and that earnings adjustments.

Well, you can’t really talk your way out of the chart above. As it clearly shows……. Continue reading

Red Flag – A False Breakout ???

There was something odd about this week’s breakout to new all time highs.Well, not necessarily odd, just something to be aware of. A red flag perhaps.

Consider the following.

  • The breakout did occur on unusually low volume – Not a bullish sign.
  • Weekly/daily RSI and Stochastics are sitting at extremely high levels. It will be increasingly hard for the market to push higher here.
  • VIX/VXX are either at or near …………… Continue reading

Weekly Stock Market Update & Forecast: Feb. 17th, 2017

Weekly stochastics at 98.5. Extremely overbought level associated with prior market peaks. Daily at 98.25 – at severly overbought levels as well.
VIX/VXX either at or approaching their historic lows. Commercial VIX long interest approaching record highs. Now at 120K contracts net long. Continue reading

Trump Declares Most Media “The Enemy of the American People!”

This is getting better with each passing day. Joseph Stalin would be proud. Time to build Gulags in the mountains of Montana and send some media talking heads down there for a few years of hard labor? I don’t think many Americans would mind too much

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Why The Dow At 10,000 Is Just As Likely As The Dow At 30,000

Now, the analysis above is about as rosy as it can get. It assumes that everything, and I mean everything, goes right. Very unlikely considering today’s openly hostile environment. Also, the analyst forgot to discount the negatives. What about a trade war with China – how will that impact GDP, growth and earnings? What if the S&P earnings continue to decelerate. Etc….. You get the picture.

Let’s run our calculations.   Continue reading

As Opposition Regroups Trump Takes A Victory Lap – Of Sorts

When the history books are written Trump’s Press Conference last night might go down as either one of the most brilliant attacks on the MSM or as an outer failure with a side of crazy. Despite raving reviews, I believe it might be the latter.  Mostly because President Trump took full credit for the massive stock market bubble we are currently experiencing. Trump Commits Gravest Of All Stock Market Errors – Again.

And while the opposition is licking its wounds this morning, Mr. Trump is taking a victory lap of sorts. Here are his latest Tweets….. Continue reading

Open Gaps Paint A Scary Picture

There is a theory in technical analysis that suggests “All Gaps Eventually Get Closed”. Over the yeas I have found that to be true. The case for gap closure is reinforced when there are multiple and large gaps pointing in the same direction.

If true, that represents very bad news for the market and the recent Trump inspired rally. The chart below represents the Dow Jones. Red circles represent large up gaps in the index (of at least 50-100 points). However, most other indices, volatility readings and high volume stocks have similar gaps. As you can see, they are numerous and significant.

What does all of that mean?  Continue reading

Mark Zuckerberg Appoints Himself As The Chief “Globalizer”

Well, 2016 was not a good year for globalization. First, the UK decided to leave the EU, dealing a major blow to Brussels wet dreams. Then, President Trump swept to victory with his “Make America Great Again” slogan. Now, France, Germany and Italy are revolting as well.

But worry not, freeloaders worldwide. Mark Zuckerberg has a plan to put us all back on the path to globalization euphoria. Continue reading

MUST Watch: Trump Goes All In With Incredibly Risky Narrative

If you have missed it, President Trump’s first press conference is a MUST watch. During the press conference Mr. Trump took credit for all of the positive changes since his inauguration. For instance, the stock market surging to new all time highs. All of the negative issues were blamed on “inheriting a terrible mess”. While the media was labeled as out of control and dishonest. Fair enough.

One thing is certain, this press conference was one of kind and historic. No President of the United States has been either so bold or naive. Time will tell. In our view the narrative above is risky and dangerous. In a sense that it only works until it doesn’t. The chances of it backfiring is off the scale – as was outlined here Trump Commits Gravest Of All Stock Market Errors – Again.

Interesting times ahead. (Trump’s conference starts at 1:04.30)

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